US pressure on China grows with Iran attack

The strikes on Iran on Saturday are part of a bigger play by the United States that reaches beyond the Middle East to put pressure on China, a country it sees as its main global adversary, analysts told Newsweek. 

The U.S. strikes, alongside its ally Israel, that began on Saturday was the second by the U.S. in three months against an oil-rich Chinese ally after it launched a military operation earlier this year against Venezuela, toppling the government there. Both Venezuela and Iran were close friends and strategic allies of China, which was buying oil from them on favorable terms.

The U.S. sees China as its main rival globally, with China’s massive industrial capacity and fast-paced naval buildup putting it in a position potentially to challenge American military dominance in the Pacific and its influence globally. The Chinese military has been conducting increasingly aggressive military exercises that encircle Taiwan, stoking fears of invasion.

In Iran, as in Venezuela in January, while there were multiple factors at work, more than local or even regional politics were in play, two analysts told Newsweek.  

“The objective is to choke out the primary source of cheap oil to China,” Madi Kapparov, an economist and the Head of Research at the Centre for Information Defence and Strategies which has offices in London, said.

Disruption to China’s oil supplies posed a particular threat to China’s military which needed a dependable supply of gasoline and diesel to operate, Kapparov said. China had invested heavily in new coal plants and in renewable energy, but “a military cannot run on coal or renewables,” Kapparov added.  

Beijing had squeezed down the price of the oil it bought from Iran for years as the country had few takers due to long-term international sanctions over its nuclear program. China bought more than 80 percent of Iran’s shipped oil in 2025, according to the analytics firm Kpler.

Figures for how much of its oil China imported from Iran vary “from 0 to 18 percent,” since Chinese Customs data stopped reporting Iran deliveries in 2022, Kapparov said. About 13 percent of China’s crude oil shipped via sea came from Iran, according to Reuters, but the trade was shrouded in secrecy with ship-to-ship transfers taking place including off Malaysia. Until January, Venezuela supplied about four percent of China’s oil needs. Hopes in China that the loss of Venezuelan oil would be offset by Iranian imports now appear dashed.

China buys oil from Russia, also a political ally, but replacing Iranian oil is not a straight switch as Russian oil may require different refining processes. 

China also buys oil from other countries, but those purely commercial supplies could be threatened if it were to invade Taiwan, as China would likely be hit by international sanctions just as Russia has been over its invasions of Ukraine. 

Authoritarians’ Domino Theory 

The China angle to the events in Iran was part of an even bigger play, Ross Babbage, the CEO of Strategic Forum, an Australia-based strategy consultancy and a fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, D.C., told Newsweek.

With the attack on Iran and the death of Ayatollah Khameinei, another long-term authoritarian leader had fallen, he said, adding that “there appears to be the elements of a strategy in the U.S., and it seems to be making real progress.”

“The countries that have been authoritarian strongholds, if you like, are falling over. The partners that Beijing and Moscow have are reducing in number and in strategic weight,” he said. 

“What we’re talking about here is a series of steps by the United States and its allies, obviously Israel is involved in this especially with Iran…to dramatically change the pro-authoritarian orientation of these states that at the moment are partners, or have been partners, of Beijing and Moscow, to get them to change their tune and to get them to become at least neutral if not pro-Western,” Babbage said. 

He cautioned the contours of any U.S. strategy remained unclear but said national security policy had proved remarkably enduring through the last several administrations.

“I’d be the first to say the evidence is scattered. There are some people in the [U.S.] administration who appear to have a fairly cohesive view, but in terms of implementation there are a lot of other factors to take into account including decision making around the current Iran operation,” Babbage said. 

China has been restrained in its reaction to the U.S. strike, with Xinhua news agency issuing some specific announcements including that the head of Iran’s police intelligence service had been killed, and the foreign ministry in Beijing protesting the death of Khameinei, issuing instructions for its nationals in Iran how to leave, and calling for the U.S. not to escalate.

Are China and Russia Reliable Partners?

More broadly, events in Iran and in Venezuela had raised questions not just for China and for Russia but for their partnerships particularly in the developing world, where both have been expanding influence fast in recent years, Babbage said.

“They talk in grandiose terms about all these regimes that are supportive and partners with them, but when push comes to shove, what have they done to support Venezuela against the United States? The answer is they really couldn’t do anything. And I think it’s the same effectively, or very similar in reality, with Iran,” he said. 

Babbage predicted that Cuba might be next, saying, “We’re seeing a very real prospect that Cuba will fall over in the next few months.”