Tropical Storm Erin update: Major hurricane predicted

All eyes are on the Atlantic Ocean as Tropical Storm Erin formed late Monday morning.

AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting that the storm will be the first of the Atlantic hurricane season to become a major hurricane. Newsweek has contacted AccuWeather for comment by email.

Why It Matters

The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and runs through November 30. Tropical Storm Erin is the fifth named storm of the season and the second to form this month, following Tropical Storm Dexter, which fizzled out over the ocean in the first week of August.

Erin could become a major hurricane, a designation that occurs when a storm’s wind speeds reach 111 mph or higher, classified as a Category 3 hurricane. Should it strengthen as meteorologists expect, Erin could become not only the first hurricane but also the first major hurricane of the season.

What To Know

Maximum sustained wind speeds for Tropical Storm Erin were measured at 45 mph with higher gusts.

“Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in the first public advisory for the storm. “Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.”

What Effects Are Expected

As of Monday, ongoing effects from the storm include locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over parts of the Cabo Verde islands. NHC meteorologists warned people in that region to “monitor the progress of this system.”

Will Hurricane Erin Hit the U.S.?

Erin is not expected to hit the U.S. According to a storm timeline from AccuWeather, Erin is forecast to become a Category 1 hurricane by Thursday afternoon when its eyes is located well east of the Lesser Antilles. Over the 48 hours that follow, Erin is forecast to intensify to a major hurricane, with wind speeds at 111 mph or greater.

The timeline shows Erin will likely remain a major hurricane until Sunday around 2 p.m. The storm is then expected to downgrade to a Category 2, with wind speeds between 96 and 110 mph. The timeline shows the storm’s path up to next Monday afternoon, when Erin is still expected to be a Category 2 storm.

The NHC also forecasts that Erin will become a major hurricane, though its forecasts anticipate the storm will do so by late morning on Saturday.

Despite the expectation that the storm’s hurricane strength will persist through the weekend, it also looks as though it will make a northern turn well east of the U.S. East Coast.

“The upper air pattern late week favors it turning north and likely staying east of the U.S. East Coast,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill said in a report. “However, there can be an increase in rough surf and rip currents along the East Coast beaches next weekend into early the following week.”

Earlier this month, AccuWeather predicted that three to five named storms could form in the Atlantic throughout August.

What People Are Saying

The National Hurricane Center said in a Monday update: “Regardless of development over the next couple of days, the system is expected to continue moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.”

What Happens Next

Meteorologists are monitoring the storm. The NHC is also monitoring two other disturbances in the Atlantic, both with a low chance of development.