Tennessee election map shows huge voter shift from Trump to Democrats

The results of a closely watched special election in Tennessee showed a significant shift away from President Donald Trump since the 2024 election.

Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democratic state Representative Aftyn Behn on Tuesday to represent Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. 

But Van Epps’ lead was about 9 percentage points with 99 percent of the votes counted, meaning Behn’s loss marked a 13-point shift toward Democrats since last fall. Trump carried the district by 22 percentage points last year, and Representative Mark Green, who resigned in July, won reelection by more than 20 percentage points last November.

Why It Matters 

Van Epps’ victory wasn’t surprising in the deep-red district in Tennessee. But the race was much closer than expected and came in the wake of losses for the GOP in off-year elections last month, meaning it is sure to fuel Democratic hopes for next year’s midterm elections.

What To Know 

Behn made gains in the urban and suburban part of the district, winning only Davidson County, which includes part of Nashville, while Van Epps carried the rural areas of the district.

In every county in the district, there was a significant shift toward the Democratic candidate compared to the 2024 election. 

According to VoteHub, voters in the district’s counties shifted to the Democratic candidate by between 7 and 22 percentage points. 

Behn won Davidson County by 56.6 percentage points, a district Vice President Kamala Harris carried by 34 percentage points in 2024—a shift of 22.6 percentage points.

The state representative also made gains in rural counties, with some shifting toward Democrats by more than 10 percentage points. In Perry County, which Trump won by almost 70 percentage points in 2024, Van Epps won by about 55 percentage points—a shift of almost 15 percent toward Democrats.

In Montgomery County, where Trump had the smallest win margin of 18.5 percentage points, Van Epps won by about 8 percentage points, with voters shifting toward Democrats by more than 10 percentage points.

How Much Did Each County Shift Toward Democrats?

• Benton: +8.3
• Cheatham: +12.7
• Davidson: +22.6
• Decatur: +9.3
• Dickson: +11.3
• Hickman: +7.4
• Houston: +11.3
• Humphreys: +12
• Montgomery: +10.6
• Perry: +14.3
• Robertson: +7.5
• Stewart: +10.3
• Wayne: +7
• Williamson: +7.4

What People Are Saying 

Democratic state Representative Aftyn Behn told CNN on Tuesday: “The deck was stacked against us, especially in the deep-red South. And we’ve narrowed the margin. And for me, that is a celebration worth having.”

She previously told Newsweek: “Matt Van Epps and Washington Republicans are panicking because they know Tennessee families are suffering under their failed economic policies that are raising their costs, while they lower taxes for their billionaire donors. My affordability message—to lower grocery costs, housing costs, and health care costs—is resonating with voters of all political stripes, which is why this race is now tied.”

Republican Matt Van Epps said in his victory speech: “Tonight, we showed running from Trump is how you lose. Running with Trump is how you win. Our victory was powered by supporters of President Trump turning out to vote.”

Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said in a statement: “What happened tonight in Tennessee makes it clear: Democrats are on offense and Republicans are on the ropes. Aftyn Behn’s overperformance in this Trump +22 district is historic and a flashing warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterms.”

Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters said in a statement: “Voters didn’t just reject Aftyn Behn and her anti-Tennessee, abolish-the-police agenda—they rejected the Democrats’ entire radical platform.”

He added: “This win makes one thing clear: voters want leaders who deliver for hardworking Americans, not far-left candidates who hate the very people they claim to represent.”

President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social: “Congratulations to Matt Van Epps on his BIG Congressional WIN in the Great State of Tennessee. The Radical Left Democrats threw everything at him, including Millions of Dollars. Another great night for the Republican Party!!!” 

What Happens Next

It remains unclear when Van Epps will be sworn in.

Meanwhile, Democrats, who seek to regain power in next year’s midterms, are likely to frame voters’ shift toward their candidate in a deep-red district as a referendum on Trump’s second term.