NFL Week 15 Best Bets, Betting Overview: Bills-Pats, Packers-Broncos Odds + Picks

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Week 15 is probably going to feature Philip Rivers* in action vs. one of the best defensive teams in the league.

The results of this weekend will also A) officially eliminate a number of teams from the playoff hunt, B) officially clinch a few contenders’ spots, and C) move some hopefuls to within one win of a postseason berth.

If that doesn’t constitute “something for everyone,” I don’t know what does.

The high-stakes action began last night in Tampa Bay, where the Bucs squandered a 14-point fourth-quarter lead in a 29-28 loss to the Falcons (5-9).

Now 7-7 following a 5-1 start that included wins over the Texans, Seahawks and 49ers, Tampa — whose playoff odds are now -130 at both DraftKings and FanDuel — will need to finish strong to defend its NFC South title. 

I’ll have plenty more to say about this division next weekend ahead of Week 16’s massive battle between the Panthers and Bucs.

For today, however, I’m more focused on Sunday afternoon’s Bills-Patriots (Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS) and Packers-Broncos (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on CBS) matchups.

Before checking out my early takes on Bills-Pats and Packers-Broncos, check out my picks for every Week 15 matchup (all 16 of them!), plus the latest episode of All In With Ashley, which features actor and comedian Pauly Shore.

*The former Chargers star is not only 44 years old, but he is also literally a grandfather!

Bills-Patriots Betting Odds, Early Thoughts, Prediction

The matchup: Bills at Patriots — 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Betting odds (DK)

– Spread: BUF -1.5 (-102); NE +1.5 (-118)

– Moneyline: BUF -120; NE +100

– Total: 49.5 (over -110; under -110)

Drake Maye and the Patriots (11-2) have been unbelievable all season, but I don’t expect them to complete a season sweep of Josh Allen and the Bills (9-4) this week. 

New England’s win over Buffalo back in Week 5 shouldn’t be discounted just because the Bills lost the turnover battle 3-to-1 that night. That aspect of the Pats’ upset does, however, make it at least a bit of an anomaly.

Other stats that favored the Pats in Week 5 included total yardage (363-338), first downs (25-21) and third-down efficiency (5/9 vs. 3/9). 

I also love Buffalo’s chances of running the football on a New England defense that has allowed at least 111 rushing yards in four straight weeks. On the year, four of the Pats’ six worst games against the run (by total rushing yards allowed) have come over the last four weeks. 

Pick: Bills -1.5 (-102 at DK)

Packers vs. Broncos Betting Odds, Early Thoughts, Prediction

Can Denver Continue Its Winning Streak vs. Green Bay?

The similarities between Buffalo-New England and Green Bay-Denver are impossible to ignore.

Just like in Sunday’s AFC East showdown, the visiting team in GB-DEN (the 9-3-1 Packers) is favored on the road against an opponent that has not lost since Week 3.

Despite the 11-2 Broncos’ 10-game winning streak, oddsmakers remain skeptical of QB Bo Nix and Co, and so do I.

As much as I respect Denver’s ability to come through in the clutch, its recent performances against the Commanders and Raiders make it fair to question whether this team can outscore a potent offense like the one it will face on Sunday.

Both Bills-Pats and Packers-Broncos feel like cases where we should listen to what Vegas is telling us when it makes 11-2 teams home underdogs, so I’ll go with Jordan Love and the Packers.

I’m also bullish on Green Bay -2.5 (-110 at DK, FD) given that it has beaten playoff contenders Detroit and Chicago by 7 points in back-to-back weeks.

The Broncos do have three wins of their own over playoff-caliber opponents this year: they beat the Eagles in Week 5, the Texans in Week 9 and the Chiefs in Week 11.

It should be noted, though, that two of those wins required huge late rallies (the Broncos outscored Philly 18-0 and Houston 11-0 in the fourth quarter). And the 18-15 nailbiter over the Texans took place after they lost CJ Stroud in the second quarter of that contest.

🔥Take Of The Week: Watch Out, Pittsburgh 

Neither the argument I just made for road favorite Buffalo nor the one for the Packers really constitutes a hot take, does it?? I’ll go ahead and answer that question for myself…

So, how about, “Watch out for the Dolphins!?” on Monday Night Football as this week’s hot take?

That’s right, the team on a hot streak that I think Vegas is really sleeping on might be Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins. They have quietly won four in a row after a 2-7 start.

I don’t expect an instant classic, by any means, in the MNF battle between Tua Tagovailoa and 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers. But at the very least, it’s a compelling matchup for the (sickest of) sickos.

Whoops, I’ve buried the lede. My whole point here was to mention that Miami is A) catching 3 points and B) well worth a long look at +3 and/or a sprinkle to win outright (MIA ML +146 — FanDuel).

The Dolphins do two things really well (or at least they have throughout their winning streak):

1) running the football

2) pressuring opposing quarterbacks

Two of the Steelers’ biggest weaknesses happen to be stopping the run and dealing with pressure on Rodgers.

I detailed Miami’s suddenly imposing pass rush earlier this week. There’s no need to rehash all that here (though I’m kinda going to anyway).

First of all, the Dolphins have piled up 14 sacks in their last four games. They’ve also been credited by Pro Football Reference with 41 pressures across 162 dropbacks (a remarkable pressure rate of 25.3 percent) by opposing quarterbacks the last four weeks.

Yes, the offenses they’ve faced in this stretch include the Commanders, Saints and Jets. This D also pressured Josh Allen 16 times in 45 dropbacks in Miami’s 30-13 win over Buffalo in Week 10, though.

And trust me when I say that Dolphins RB De’Von Achane — who has run for 520 yards on 27 carries during his team’s winning streak — is poised for another big game (bruised ribs and all) against Pittsburgh’s poor run D.

I’ll wrap this up by pointing out that in the wide-open AFC wild-card hunt, Miami has still not been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention …

No, I’m not ready to suggest this team will make the playoffs (at least not yet) — but let’s not write Miami off until we see how Dolphins-Steelers goes on Monday.

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