NFL Week 14 Best Bets Against The Spread, Best Player Prop Bet 📩

Welcome to the latest edition of the Newsweek Sports Betting newsletter, which you can start receiving in your inbox by subscribing here. Right now, here’s what your free subscription entails:

• Weekly look at college basketball (every Tuesday evening)
• Weekly look at the NBA (every Wednesday evening)
• NFL weekend preview (every Friday morning)
• College Football ATS picks (every Saturday morning at 10 a.m. ET)
• NFL ATS picks (every Sunday morning at 10 a.m. ET)

This edition is available below, to subscribers only.

We finally had a breakthrough last Sunday, as the Texans and Seahawks came through to give us our first 2-1 week in a while.

Let’s hope the following Week 14 bets against the spread can keep us on the right track entering the home stretch of the 2025 NFL regular season:

• 1️⃣ Baltimore (-6) to handle Pittsburgh at home
• 2️⃣ Denver (-7.5) to finally win a game with some room to spare in Vegas
• 3️⃣ Houston (+3.5) to push — if not upset — Kansas City on SNF

And stay with us until the end for our favorite player prop bet of the day.

1️⃣ Steelers at Ravens (-6) — 1 p.m. (CBS)

The Ravens (6-6) and Steelers (6-6) have identical records, and both are coming off of ugly losses in Week 13. Going forward, however, I feel much better about Baltimore than Pittsburgh. 

The Ravens will be kicking themselves for weeks for turning it over five times in last Thursday’s loss to the Bengals. There’s good news, though: ball security is a problem they can — and should — easily fix.

The Steelers, on the other hand, are struggling to move the football against good defenses and committing too many turnovers (seven in the last four weeks). And I don’t feel good about Pittsburgh’s front seven slowing down Derrick Henry, either, after he went off in the last two meetings between these teams.

Pittsburgh’s pass rush remains imposing (its tied for seventh in the NFL with 34 sacks), but this defense is allowing 4.3 yards per carry this season, and it just gave up a whopping 249 yards on the ground in last Sunday’s loss to the Bills.

Taking the Ravens to beat their rivals by a touchdown is risky given that Lamar Jackson hasn’t looked like himself over the last few weeks. That being said, I trust the Baltimore defense and running game to control this one and allow the home favorites to win by at least a touchdown.

Pick: Ravens -6 (-110 at DraftKings)

2️⃣ Broncos (-7.5) at Raiders — 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

At the risk of jinxing this, the Raiders (2-10) currently look like a team worth fading every week (unless they’re catching, IDK, 14 points or more).

The Las Vegas offense has been a mess all season, and it’s hit a new low over the last month, with 16 points or fewer in five of the last six games. 

Though the Broncos (10-2) have one of the league’s best records, they’ve not been a great bet to cover, but I’m convinced that today will bring a rare victory that doesn’t come down to the wire.

The Denver defense held the Raiders to less than 200 yards of total offense when these teams met on Thursday Night Football in Week 10. The Broncos still barely won that game, 10-7, on an off night by their own offense, but I expect Denver to score at least a couple touchdowns today while shutting down Geno Smith and Co.

Pick: Broncos -7.5 (-110 at DK)

3️⃣ Texans (+3.5) at Chiefs — 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Houston (7-5) is still not getting much respect from oddsmakers, even after winning seven of its last nine games since it started the year 0-3. 

The outstanding Texans D should be able to keep this game close, even if the offense struggles. And if CJ Stroud and Co. put up even a solid effort, that should be enough for Houston to take down Kansas City (yes, I think Houston on the moneyline is a solid bet, but we’re playing it safe for now). 

The Chiefs (6-6) have struggled offensively the last four weeks against the Bills, Broncos, Colts and Cowboys. Should we really expect this offense to bounce back against a Houston D that has held five of its last six opponents to less than 20 points??

A close win at home by a Kansas City team that can’t afford a loss wouldn’t shock me, but I would be surprised to see the Chiefs cover. As of Sunday morning, we know that left tackle Josh Simmons is out tonight, while RG Trey Smith and RT Jawaan Taylor are listed as doubtful.

The strong chance that the KC O-line will be missing three starters tonight only makes the Texans that much more tempting, especially at +3.5. 

Pick: Texans +3.5 (best odds: -102 at FanDuel) 

Best Player Prop: Ashton Jeanty 5+ Rececptions

Las Vegas RB Ashton Jeanty 5+ Receptions (+116 at DK)

When a team can’t protect its quarterback*, that often leads to a significant increase in the running back’s role in the passing game.

This certainly applies to Geno Smith and the Raiders, who have been buried by opposing pass rushers the last few weeks.

Related: Jeanty has drawn at least five targets in five straight games, including eight apiece in each of his last three. Amid that uptick in opportunities, he has cashed this prop in four of his last five games. After recording just eight receptions total in his first four games this year, Jeanty has had at least five catches in five of his last eight games.

It’s also worth noting that since the Raiders traded WR Jakobi Meyers to the Jaguars after Week 9, Jeanty has been one of Smith’s top three most-targeted receivers in four straight games. Last Sunday, for example, he led the team in both targets (8) and receptions (6) amid another awful day for this offense. 

Pointing out that Jeanty has recorded 6, 8 and 6 receptions in his last three games would have probably sufficed at the case for this prop bet. But when you look at his outsized role in the Raiders’ struggling passing game in recent weeks, Jeanty to record 5+ receptions feels like even more of a slam-dunk.

I’ll admit that this prop being priced at +116 gives me pause, but I’m going to choose not to overthink it.

*Case in point: only Cam Ward has been sacked more times than Geno Smith, who has gone down 46 times, with a sack rate of 10.9 percent. The only two quarterbacks with a higher sack rate this year are Minnesota’s JJ McCarthy and New York’s Justin Fields.

Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.