Major Christmas weather change to hit California
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Forecast models are anticipating a major weather pattern change for California as Christmas approaches, with a series of atmospheric rivers set to funnel impacts in the Golden State as soon as this week and persisting through the holiday.
Atmospheric rivers are a “long, narrow region in the atmosphere—like rivers in the sky—that transport most of the water vapor outside of the tropics,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The forecast comes as central California, specifically the San Francisco Bay Area, has been locked in a dry spell. National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologists at the San Francisco office said it hasn’t rained in three weeks. Although dry spells throughout the winter are not uncommon for the area, NWS lead meteorologist Matt Mehle told Newsweek that a “notable pattern change” will move into the area next week.
“A stronger, more potent storm system will come in on the 22nd and 23rd, so that’s going to be leading right into the Christmas holiday,” Mehle said. “It could impact travel.”
Some impacts will unfold Monday and persist throughout the week, Mehle said, with the more notable change hitting next week.
Storm chaser Colin McCarthy shared a copy of the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts, a top global weather model, in a post on X on Sunday.
“Confidence is increasing in a major pattern change for much of California, with significant storm activity arriving during Christmas week and atmospheric rivers possible,” McCarthy posted. “Storms will initially arrive in Northern California midweek, with rain mostly north of the Golden Gate, and are expected to be very warm, with snow levels above 7,000 feet. This should finally break up Tule Fog in the Central Valley. Progressively colder storms may follow closer to Christmas, potentially reaching Southern California, but uncertainty remains high beyond 7 days. Stay tuned.”
The NWS Climate Prediction Center also anticipates warm, wet weather for California and the rest of the West Coast between December 20 and 28. Temperature outlooks show a high chance of above-average temperatures for the region, and precipitation outlooks show the same.
“A mid-level ridge over the Bering Sea and a downstream trough into the northeastern Pacific increase the likelihood that atmospheric river events will continue affecting the Pacific Northwest and expand southward into central California by December 19,” the NWS Climate Prediction Center posted on X. “Periods of heavy rain, high-elevation heavy snow, and high winds are most likely from western Washington to central California December 19-22.”
Included with the post was a map revealing where the anticipated impacts will strike with the coming storms.”
The highest chance at impacts will be in the days leading up to Christmas, with central and northern California expecting heavy snow, heavy precipitation, and high winds between December 19 and 22.
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