What Trump’s authorization of covert CIA ops in Venezuela means

President Donald Trump has confirmed he authorized the CIA to carry out covert operations in oil-rich Venezuela, ratcheting up already high tensions with Caracas but leaving hanging questions about how far the U.S. would go in its operations against Venezuela’s authoritarian leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Trump told reporters on Wednesday he had greenlit CIA operations inside Venezuela because the South American country had “emptied their prisons into the United States of America.” He did not provide evidence for this statement, which may be a reference to the Venezuela-based Tren de Aragua gang that was formed in prison and Trump has labeled a foreign terrorist organization.

The Republican also said the U.S. would stop drugs heading for the States from Venezuela by land after multiple, lethal U.S. strikes on alleged drug trafficking boats in international waters in recent weeks. Trump’s decision was first reported by The New York Times.

Trump had raised alarm bells by moving significant U.S. military assets—including eight warships, a nuclear-power submarine and fighter jets—to the southern Caribbean, close to Venezuela, as part of what he has painted as a massive crackdown on drug trafficking into the U.S. Some 10,000 US forces are reportedly deployed in the area, either on ships or in the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico.

The president appears to have no rapport with Maduro. The U.S., along with many European and Latin American countries, does not recognize Maduro as the legitimate winner of the country’s July 2024 election. The U.S. is offering $50 million for information leading to the Venezuelan leader’s arrest, accusing Maduro of collaborating with organized crime, like Tren de Aragua. Maduro has for years faced U.S. drug trafficking charges and batted away U.S. accusations of narco-terrorism.

U.S. strikes on alleged drug trafficking boats since early September have killed at least 27 people, according to the administration. Trump said a Tuesday strike on a vessel close to Venezuela had killed six people onboard. UN-appointed human rights experts have described the raids as “extrajudicial executions,” with come observers reacting with horror at what they see as a likely violation of international law.

Venezuela’s government said it rejected Trump’s “bellicose and extravagant statements” and said the decision would break international law. Caracas said it felt “extreme alarm” at the authorization of the CIA operations in the country, on top of the U.S. military presence in the southern Caribbean.

“It is clear that such maneuvers seek to legitimize a “regime change” operation with the ultimate goal of seizing Venezuelan oil resources,” said the government. Venezuela said its United Nations ambassador would lodge a protest with the U.N. Security Council and the organization’s Secretary General, António Guterres.

What Could CIA Covert Action Mean?

The president’s public confirmation that the CIA can operate in Venezuela is, first and foremost, political messaging, said Christopher Sabatini, a senior fellow for Latin America at the influential Chatham House think tank. “It’s about show, it’s about performance,” but not about Venezuela’s oil, Sabatini told Newsweek.

Trump on Wednesday declined to answer whether his administration hoped to topple Maduro. The Times reported U.S. officials have clearly stated in private that regime change is the goal.

But it’s still unclear how much of an appetite the administration, with its America First agenda, would have for becoming embroiled militarily abroad, although Trump officials have firmly framed operations close to Venezuela as protecting U.S. citizens. The CIA has a long history of operating in Latin America.

Fears of a U.S. armed attack followed the moving of U.S. assets, including multiple surface ships and a submarine, to the southern Caribbean, although analysts have long deeply doubted Trump would commit U.S. soldiers in an invasion effort. “It would look more like Afghanistan than Panama,” Sabatini said.

The U.S. became mired in battling Taliban guerrilla fighters in Afghanistan post-9/11, ultimately ending in a Western withdrawal that cemented the Taliban’s power in Kabul. In 1989, then-President George H.W. Bush authorized U.S. troops to invade Panama in an operation framed as a mission to bring Panama’s leader, Manuel Noriega, “to justice.” The Panamanian dictator was indicted in the U.S. for drug trafficking and was accused of rigging elections.

“The American people deserve to know if the administration is leading the U.S. into another conflict, putting service members at risk or pursuing a regime-change operation,” Democrat Senator Jeanne Shaheen said in a statement. “The Trump administration’s authorization of covert CIA action, conducting lethal strikes on boats and hinting at land operations in Venezuela slides the United States closer to outright conflict with no transparency, oversight or apparent guardrails.”

CIA operations inside a foreign country does not equate to troops on the ground. They may involve trying to work toward an internal coup d’etat, gathering information for targeted military strikes, or even facilitating the kidnapping of Caracas’ top officials like Maduro, rather than an invasion push, Sabatini said. The CIA will be able to carry out “lethal operations” in Venezuela, unspecified other operations in the Caribbean and act directly against Maduro and his allies, according to the Times report.

The first task for the CIA would likely be identifying targets, like infrastructure and ports associated with the drugs trade, said Sabatini. After that, it may be that the agency looks at individuals it could target.

But “it’s difficult to distinguish what is likely to happen and what is just signaling,” Sabatini said.