Gavin Newsom’s redistricting ballot measure chances of passing—New poll

California Governor Gavin Newsom‘s redistricting ballot measure has support from a majority of the state’s voters, according to a new poll.

Newsweek reached out to Newsom and the California GOP for comment via email.

Why It Matters

The redistricting arms race between California, Texas and other states could have key implications for the midterms. Texas, with the support of President Donald Trump, first announced plans to redraw its map to become more favorable to Republicans and thwart losses in the midterms, but Newsom has warned California could redraw its map to benefit Democrats in return.

California Democrats’ ability to do so may hinge on the outcome of a ballot measure Newsom announced last week that would allow a new map drafted by legislators to temporarily replace the boundaries drawn up by the state’s independent redistricting committee following the 2020 census.

If the ballot measure is successful, it could neutralize efforts from Texas Republicans. But if it fails, Republicans may be able to net several seats in not only Texas, but also other GOP states like Indiana and Missouri.

What to Know

A new poll from Newsom’s pollster, reported by Axios, suggests a majority of voters are prepared to support the ballot measure.

The poll, conducted by David Binder, showed that 57 percent of California voters are in support of the proposal. Only 35 percent were opposed to it, while 8 percent remained undecided.

Among Democrats, the ballot measure had 84 percent support, while only 13 percent opposed it. Among Republicans, 79 percent were opposed, the poll found, according to Axios.

The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from August 10 to August 14, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

California remains a solidly blue state where Democrats handily outnumber Republicans. Former Vice President Kamala Harris carried it by 20 points last November, so Democrats are hopeful this ballot measure will fall on partisan lines. But the state has an independent redistricting community that was passed by voters and remains popular.

A Politico poll released last week found that 64 percent of California voters support keeping the commission, while only 36 percent support returning redistricting authority to the state legislature.

Newsom, who is viewed as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, has cast the ballot measure as a temporary measure, which would no longer be in effect after the 2030 census, which is only in response to Texas’ redistricting efforts. It would not go into effect unless Texas or other Republican states first redraw their lines. Republicans, however, have described it as a power grab that violates the will of Californians.

What People Are Saying

David Binder wrote in the poll, per Axios: “Voter trends on this measure closely mirror the presidential election results of November 2024, in which Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump in California by 58% to 38%. Poll results indicate that Proposition 50 will fall along similar partisan lines.”

Representative Kevin Kiley, a California Republican, wrote to X on Tuesday: “Newsom is overthrowing the Redistricting Commission in order to make California ‘a whole lot bluer.’ To accomplish this, his proposal expressly overrides the entire State Constitution. Partisan gerrymandering will become the supreme law of the land.”

Governor Newsom wrote to X on Tuesday: “Unlike Texas, we’re not following @realDonaldTrump’s orders to quietly try to redistrict our way out of losing the next election. In California, we’re working transparently to respond if Texas enacts new maps — and we’ll give the power to the people to make our final decision.”

What Happens Next

Voters will make their decision about the redistricting plan in November. Both Democrats and Republicans will spend the coming months making their case to voters on whether the ballot measure should pass. Meanwhile, the redistricting war continues across the country, with Trump urging Texas Republicans to pass their plan “ASAP.”