US murder rates set for biggest yearly drop ever, analyst says

The United States is set to see the largest one-year decline in murders ever recorded, according to a crime data analyst.

Jeff Asher, the co-founder of AH Datalytics, says the Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), a collection of monthly crime data from hundreds of law enforcement agencies nationwide, shows murder has dropped by about 19.8 percent from January through October compared to 2024.

“A roughly 20 percent drop in murder in 2025, as is suggested by the current data, would be by far the largest decline ever recorded, eclipsing the decline in 2024—currently pegged at -15 percent by the FBI, but that’s subject to a likely upward revision next year,” Asher wrote in his Substack blog.

Why It Matters

The decline comes as President Donald Trump has prioritized a combating violent crime since returning to the White House in January. He has sent the National Guard to several Democrat-led cities as part of his administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration and crime, sparking an intense backlash and legal challenges.

While Trump officials are taking credit, the decline in murder is part of a larger trend dating back several years. Homicides surged during the pandemic, but as Asher notes, the drop in crime this year “continues a trend that began in 2023, accelerated in 2024, and likely became historic in 2025.”

What To Know 

The RTCI data is currently only available through October. The data from a sample of 570 agencies shows there were 5,912 murders through October this year, compared to 7,369 in 2024. 

Murder is down significantly in big cities that saw the most homicides in 2024, Asher notes.

Birmingham, Alabama, saw the biggest decline since 2024, with a 49 percent drop. Murder has fallen by almost 30.9 percent in Baltimore compared to last year, by 28.8 percent in Chicago, by 20.9 percent in New York City, 26.3 percent in Atlanta and 15.8 percent in Philadelphia.

But some of the cities with the most murders in 2024 saw an increase this year. Milwaukee had an increase of 11.3 percent, while murders in Los Angeles rose by 5.3 percent and Kansas City saw an increase of 6.2 percent.

Asher noted that looking at individual cities “highlights the historic nature in the drop in murder.”

He wrote: “New Orleans is on pace for the fewest murders since 1970. New York City reported the fewest shootings ever recorded (though the start of recording is probably the 1990s). Numerous cities recorded the lowest murders through November since the 1960s, including Detroit (since 1964), Baltimore (1962), Philadelphia (1966), Oakland (1967), and San Francisco (likely since at least 1942).”

What People Are Saying 

Jeff Asher wrote that overall, there “were likely around 12,000 fewer people murdered in the United States in 2024 and 2025 than in 2020 and 2021. That is tremendous progress that should be celebrated, while acknowledging that 14,000 or so murders this year in the United States is still far too many.”

The Department of Homeland Security wrote on X: “Here at DHS we’ve been operating by this radical idea that removing murderers from our country would bring down the murder rate. Who could have guessed it would work?”

FBI Director Kash Patel wrote on X: “U.S. murders on pace for largest one-year drop on record—not an accident. @realDonaldTrump’s policy letting good cops be cops WORKS. Lives being saved every single day under this administration with great local partners across the country. And more work to do.”

Elon Musk wrote on X: “Removing murderers from the streets works wonders.”

What Happens Next 

The FBI will not release official violent crime data for 2025 until the latter half of next year, though Asher notes that RTCI estimates have long tracked closely with the FBI’s figures.

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