New oil forecast offers Trump cautious hope

Oil demand will be slower than expected as supply grows over the coming year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest market report Wednesday, offering U.S. President Donald Trump room for optimism—with caveats.

Lower oil prices, already in decline in the past few months, would help take some of the heat out of elevated inflation in the U.S. and could offset some of the consumer price increases associated with Trump’s tariffs.

It would also put extra economic pressure on oil-producing foes of the U.S., including Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, another positive for the Trump administration.

But American oil producers would also suffer a financial hit from lower prices, and reduced demand is a sign of global economic weakness that could feed back to the U.S., too.

“While oil market balances look ever more bloated as forecast supply far eclipses demand towards year-end and in 2026, additional sanctions on Russia and Iran may curb supplies from the world’s third and fifth largest producers,” the IEA said.

This is a developing article. Updates to follow.